Burger

IMLAND

Integrative modeling lab on agricultural adaptation in North Germany

IMLAND Landwirtschaft 3500x1400

Foto: Fotolia/Gudellaphoto

Results

Background

Changing climate conditions increase the vulnerability of agriculture in Northeast Lower Saxony. Due to its sandy soils, the region's economy depends on irrigation. Irrigation is mainly pumped from groundwater affecting the hydrological cycle. We thus evaluate the effectiveness of several climate change adaptation measures to prevent yield losses.

Methods
System Dynamics is used to describe and analyze the actual state of the agricultural systems in the Lüneburg Heath. Within a participatory modeling approach, stakeholders from various sectors are included directly in the model building. Future yield projections for different CO2 emission scenarios and climate change adaptation measures are evaluated using the process-based crop model EPIC and a statistical crop model.

Aims and objectives

The main objectives of the project are:

  • A qualitative and quantitative assessment of agricultural systems in the Lüneburg Heath
  • Evaluation of possible adaption strategies including ecologic, economic and social measures
  • Model-based estimation of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
  • Development of models and methods to support stakeholders

Project staff

Principal Investigators
Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneider, Universität Hamburg
Dr. María Máñez Costa, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)

Postdoc
Dr. Sabine Egerer

PhD Students
Andrea C. Fajardo Puente
Rodrigo Valencia

Conference contributions:

  • EGU General Assembly - virtual conference (April 2021): Sabine Egerer (vPICO presentation), Andrea Fajardo (vPICO presentation)
  • iEMSs Conference: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society - virtual conference (Sept 2020): Sabine Egerer (oral presentation), Rodrigo Valencia (oral presentation)
  • 38th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society - virtual conference (Sept 2020): Sabine Egerer (oral presentation), Rodrigo Valencia (oral presentation)
  • 38th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society - virtual conference (Sept 2020): Sabine Egerer (oral presentation), Rodrigo Valencia (oral presentation)

Summer and spring schools:

  • International Youth River Camp, Zernez, Switzerland (July 2018) (A. Fajardo, R. Valencia)
  • ERA4CS Summer School: Climate Services from the users perspective, Pisa (September 2018) (S. Egerer, R. Valencia)
  • Radboud Summerschool: Sustainabtility Science: A system dynamics perspective, Nijmegen (July 2019) (S. Egerer, R. Valencia)
  • Summer school on climate change impacts on the MED-Agro-Food chain, Gießen (September 2019) (S. Egerer)
  • IS-ENES3 virtual School on Climate Data Use for Impact Assessments (March 2021) (A. Fajardo)