IMLAND
Integrative modeling lab on agricultural adaptation in North Germany
Foto: Fotolia/Gudellaphoto
Results
- Stakeholder engagement and qualitative System Dynamics model
- Group modelling workshop on 3rd June 2019
- Impact of irrigation on future yields using a statistical yield model
- Analysis of climate change adaptation measures with the process-based crop model EPIC
- Analysis of future droughts in Northeast Lower Saxony
Background
Changing climate conditions increase the vulnerability of agriculture in Northeast Lower Saxony. Due to its sandy soils, the region's economy depends on irrigation. Irrigation is mainly pumped from groundwater affecting the hydrological cycle. We thus evaluate the effectiveness of several climate change adaptation measures to prevent yield losses.
Methods
System Dynamics is used to describe and analyze the actual state of the agricultural systems in the Lüneburg Heath. Within a participatory modeling approach, stakeholders from various sectors are included directly in the model building. Future yield projections for different CO2 emission scenarios and climate change adaptation measures are evaluated using the process-based crop model EPIC and a statistical crop model.
Aims and objectives
The main objectives of the project are:
- A qualitative and quantitative assessment of agricultural systems in the Lüneburg Heath
- Evaluation of possible adaption strategies including ecologic, economic and social measures
- Model-based estimation of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
- Development of models and methods to support stakeholders
Project staff
Principal Investigators
Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneider, Universität Hamburg
Dr. María Máñez Costa, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)
Postdoc
Dr. Sabine Egerer, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) (until 30.06.2021)
PhD Students
Andrea C. Fajardo Puente, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) (until 31.04.2022)
Rodrigo Valencia, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)
Conference contributions:
- EGU General Assembly - virtual conference (April 2021): Sabine Egerer (vPICO presentation), Andrea Fajardo (vPICO presentation)
- iEMSs Conference: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society - virtual conference (Sept 2020): Sabine Egerer (oral presentation), Rodrigo Valencia (oral presentation)
- 38th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society - virtual conference (Sept 2020): Sabine Egerer (oral presentation), Rodrigo Valencia (oral presentation)
- 38th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society - virtual conference (Sept 2020): Sabine Egerer (oral presentation), Rodrigo Valencia (oral presentation)
Summer and spring schools:
- International Youth River Camp, Zernez, Switzerland (July 2018) (A. Fajardo, R. Valencia)
- ERA4CS Summer School: Climate Services from the users perspective, Pisa (September 2018) (S. Egerer, R. Valencia)
- Radboud Summerschool: Sustainabtility Science: A system dynamics perspective, Nijmegen (July 2019) (S. Egerer, R. Valencia)
- Summer school on climate change impacts on the MED-Agro-Food chain, Gießen (September 2019) (S. Egerer)
- IS-ENES3 virtual School on Climate Data Use for Impact Assessments (March 2021) (A. Fajardo)
Selected publications
- Egerer, S., Valencia-Cotera, R., Celliers, L., & Máñez Costa, M. (2021). A leverage points analysis of a qualitative system dynamics model for climate change adaptation in agriculture. Agricultural Systems, 189(January).
- Valencia Cotera, R., Egerer, S., & Máñez Costa, M. (2022). Identifying Strengths and Obstacles to Climate Change Adaptation in the German Agricultural Sector : A Group Model Building Approach. Sustainability, 14(4).
- Egerer, S., Fajardo, A., Peichl, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., & Schneider, U. A. (2023). Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change. Agricultural Systems, 207(February), 103633.
- Valencia Cotera, R., Guillaumot, L., Sahu, R., Nam, C., Lierhammer, L., & Máñez, M. (2023). An assessment of water management measures for climate change adaptation of agriculture in Seewinkel. Science of the Total Environment, 885(September 2022), 163906.
- Valencia Cotera, R., Egerer, S., Nam, C., Lierhammer, L., Moors, L., & Máñez Costa. (2024). Resilient agriculture: water management for climate change adaptation in Lower Saxony. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(3), 1034–1053.